• Tue. Apr 23rd, 2024

The Canadian Dollar Goes up Along With the Rest of the Market After the NFP Risk Appetite Blowout

Leon Kramer

ByLeon Kramer

Oct 10, 2023

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  • The Canadian Dollar market experienced a shift towards a bullish sentiment after the release of labor data from both the United States and Canada.
  • The unemployment rate in Canada remains unchanged at 5.5%, while the United States maintains a steady unemployment rate of 3.8%.
  • The United States nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report has surpassed market expectations, displaying a notable outperformance. However, the earnings component of the information exhibited a slight softening.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is currently experiencing an upward trajectory, poised to surpass the trading range observed on Monday. This development follows the release of robust labor data, wherein a strong reading for the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) has been juxtaposed with subpar figures for hourly wages and unemployment, impacting the US Dollar (USD) performance.

The labor markets in Canada are displaying ongoing signs of improvement, as the Canadian economy has surpassed initial job growth expectations. However, the robust nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report has yielded varied outcomes for the United States dollar (USD) due to lackluster figures about the unemployment rate and wages in the US.

The Canadian Dollar Tumbles on Labor Statistics, and US Nonfarm Payrolls

  • The nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data in the United States exhibited a significant outperformance relative to market expectations. The figure of 336,000 surpassed the anticipated value of 170,000, demonstrating a substantial deviation. Moreover, this notable increase in employment figures reached the previous reading of 227,000 (subsequently revised upwards from 187,000).
  • The data from the United States exhibited a mixed outcome despite the notable overall nonfarm payrolls surpassing expectations. Notably, the hourly wages for September remained unchanged at 0.2%, failing to meet the projected increase of 0.3%.
  • The US Unemployment Rate did not align with projected estimates, remaining stagnant at 3.8% instead of the anticipated 3.7%.
  • The Canadian Unemployment Rate remained steady at 5.5%, aligning with the projected forecast of 5.6%.
  • The Canadian labor market experienced a significant shift, with a notable increase of 63.8K in net employment, surpassing the projected 20K and surpassing the previous figure of 39.9 K.
  • The observed data pattern indicates a favorable outcome for the Canadian Dollar (CAD) to the US Dollar (USD). The USD/CAD currency pair is currently experiencing a decline after a prolonged period of elevated levels throughout the week.
  • The US 10-year Treasury yields experienced a notable increase, reaching 4.88% during the day. However, it is noteworthy that the Canadian dollar has displayed unexpected resilience in light of this development.
  • Limited substantive information is available until Wednesday’s release of the United States Producer Price Index (PPI) data.

Canadian Dollar Rises on Labor Statistics, Returning to 1.3660

The USD/CAD reached an intraday high of 1.3746 before experiencing a downward movement towards 1.3640. Consequently, it deviated from the 50-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) located around 1.3720 and sought support at the 200-hour SMA around 1.3620.

Despite the temporary relief observed on Friday, it is noteworthy that the USD/CAD currency pair continues to exhibit a solid bullish sentiment, as depicted on the charts. The team is trading significantly above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) in the vicinity of 1.3450. Furthermore, the 50-day SMA has validated a bullish crossover with the longer-term moving average, further affirming the prevailing bullish trend.

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The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has undergone a retracement from its previously overbought levels, as observed on the daily chart. For the short interest on USD/CAD to align with the RSI’s downward movement, it will require a bearish confirmation.

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Leon Kramer

Leon Kramer

Leon Kramer, a renowned financial author, enlightens Main Forex News readers with his deep understanding of currency markets. His years in global finance, combined with an intuitive grasp of trends, delivers insightful, up-to-the-minute foreign exchange analysis.

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